Future Energy for Bangladesh

Zubayer Zaman

While the country is facing severe power crisis, public life is shattered for unbearable sufferings of load shedding; experts are busy with debate and discussion over extraction of alternative energy source coal. The use of this valuable underground resource for the benefit of the country is becoming uncertain for emotional debate over various issues associated with coal sector development. The government is still indecisive about the coal extraction issue. Many concerned that if this indecisive situation continues, the country will soon face severe energy crisis; economic development will be threatened. Even Chief Adviser's Special Assistant for Energy Dr M Tamim expressed his concern that the country would face a tremendous power crisis after three to four years if proper decisions are not taken and implemented. The situation is not very encouraging; time to act now. Otherwise the country will pay the price for this inaction and indecision.

Power Generation & Demand
A big majority of the people are still to have access to electricity. Only 40% are enjoying the facility. With this situation, a major initiative with visionary planning would be required to ensure reliable access of electricity to every citizen. According to the government statistics, the peak hour electricity demand of the country is around 5000MW. Against this demand scenario, the installed power generation capacity of govt. and private power plants together is around 5,212 MW. But PDB could not generate power according to the installed capacity as most of the power plants lost their installed generation capacity. Moreover, at least a dozen of power plants always remain under maintenance works for their poor state. Fuel crisis also force to reduce generation of many power plants. Therefore PDB generates on an average 3,500MW against peak demand, making a 1,500MW power deficit, which brings unbearable load shedding and sufferings to public life. Transmission and distribution problem also makes the situation worse. General people have been facing this serious power crisis for decades. This has been always the subject of debate and discussion but still to find any reasonable solution. People find it very difficult to cope with the situation but it seems there is no relief or improvement of the situation in the near future.

Gas --The Major Source of Power Generation
Our power generation is heavily dependent on gas with minimal contribution from other sources. Only a 250MW coal based power generation started in 2005 dependent on Barapukuria coal mine, which often face interruption for technical difficulties or regular supply of coal. Hydropower generation capacity is 230 MW and around 200MW comes from imported oil sources. According to the estimates of 2007, about 80% of the power plants are gas based. Sector wise gas consumption according the Petrobangla estimates is power generation 42%, fertilizer industry 17%, captive power 12%, industry 14%, domestic 12% and others 3%. CNG use in the transport sector is also increasing rapidly with sky rocketing oil price in the international market. This statistics shows how heavily we are dependent on gas and how venerable we are regarding energy security. Any major reduction or interruption in gas supply would create serious crisis in power and industrial sector. The proven and probable gas reserve in all the gas fields operated by Petrobangla and International Oil Companies (IOCs) is approximately 15 TCF, of which 7 TCF has already been used. The gas demand is increasing at a rate of 10%. But the exploration and development of infrastructure were not initiated simultaneously with growing demand. At present the country is having 100 mmcf shortages of gas against 1800 mmcf demand daily. A significant numbers of industries couldn’t start operation due to lack of gas supply. Chittagong region is the worst sufferer of this crisis. The government has already stopped providing new gas connections in Chittagong and adjacent areas and has been maintaining a cautious approach in allowing new connection in Dhaka and adjacent areas because of gas shortage. Petrobangla has also informed Power Division about their inability to supply gas in any future big power plant. Recently the government has started gas rationing in various sectors and urged the industrialists/businessmen to be sensible in gas uses.

Coal
Bangladesh is blessed with a substantial amount of high quality coal in the northwest Bangladesh. The estimated resource in the five discovered coal fields is around 2500 million tonnes, which has heat value equivalent of 70 TCF gas. Among the discovered coal fields only Barapukuria and Phulbari coal resources are confidently defined, others are inferred only and significant efforts will be required to define the mineable reserve of those coal fields. But coal sector with all its potential has never been in the serious considerations parallel with gas sector development. Our policy makers never realized the importance of diversification of energy sources to reduce dependency on gas for long term energy security of the country.
Our only achievement in the coal sector is the development of a small-scale underground coal mine at Barapukuria with Chinese financial and management support. But the mine is having trouble to feed the nearby 250 MW coal fired power plant making the expectation bleak for significant contribution in coal based power generation. Phulbari, another coal field near Barapukuria with a reserve of 572 million tonnes is ready to start mining operation after completion of all relevant studies. The UK-Australia based mining company Asia Energy is involved with the development of Phulbari coalfield. The company has submitted its Scheme of Development to the government in October 2005 and has been waiting for the decision in this regard from the Government.

Coal Sector Development: Debate-Controversy
Nobody was looking into the potential of coal before the Phulbari Coal Project coming into the scene. Very seldom energy expert, policy makers, or pressure group/activists were seen talking or aware about the severe energy crisis that might be created for the sole dependency on gas. Actually the debate started after the declaration of 572 million tonnes of coal at Phulbari Basin by the foreign company Asia Energy. We have seen the active or even violent role of some activist groups against Phulbari Coal Project. Some international NGOs and activist groups are also seen very actively campaigning against this project. But those who are opposing extraction of coal or open pit mining don’t offer any feasible option to the nation to overcome this severe energy crisis.
Those who are opposing open pit mining are arguing that coal extraction by this method will create desertification in the whole northern region and its environmental consequences will be severe and there will be a permanent loss of huge amount of agricultural land. Others favoring this method with the logic that resource recovery is very high in this method, more than 90% comparing to 10-20% in underground mining which is vital for our energy security. Open pit mining will also allow extraction of some other valuable co-products which have high demand in the country. There are well tested mitigation measures in the world to manage the environmental impacts of open pit mining. The loss of agricultural land is temporary and can put back to productive uses after reclamation and rehabilitation. Threat of desertification is a mere propaganda to create panic in public mind against open pit mining. The extraction of groundwater over a period of few decades in Dhaka and surrounding areas has lowered the water table significantly to some 50-60m. If groundwater extraction of much larger scales (some 75,000 litre/sec) doesn’t make any sign of desertification in and around Dhaka City then why mine dewatering with a much smaller scale (5000-6000 liter/sec) would create desertification over the whole northern region? Moreover determination of mining method is not a general policy decision issue; it is very much site specific. Geological, geotechnical reality of the coal field and economic viability should dictate the decision. There is also a sharp difference in opinion over royalty rate, export issue and involvement of foreign companies and investment in coal sector development. But the question is how long we would continue the debate over coal extraction leaving the country in a severe power crisis.
Who will be benefited from this debate or delay in the process of coal sector development? Although our contribution to green house gas emission is very insignificant, there is a growing concern over global warming. The rapid economic growth of India and China increases burning of fossil fuel tremendously. China almost every week is setting up a new coal based power plant to meet the growing demand. There might be international agreements in future limiting the use of coal to control the emission of green house gases responsible for polluting the atmosphere. Bangladesh shouldn’t be left with a lot of coal in the ground that has no value due to these usage restrictions. So, whatever the reasons or interest behind this opposition, an acceptable and reasonable solution of all those issues raised is important for immediate development of a healthy coal sector.

Coal: The Reliable Future Energy
Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel in the world with recoverable reserve in around 70 countries. At current production levels, proven reserves are estimated to last for more than 150 years. Many countries are heavily dependent on coal for power generation. It is the single largest source of power generation of the world with 40% contribution in this sector. World steel industry also consumes significant amount of coal. Approximately 12% of the total hard coal production is currently utilized by the steel industry.
The substantial amount of high quality coal presents unparallel opportunity for Bangladesh to diversify fueling of the power sector, reduce dependency on gas and thus improve energy security. A mine with 10-15 million tonnes annual production capacity can feed few large 500MW power plants for next 30-40 years. Reliable long term supply of coal will also attract local and foreign investors in coal fired power generation. The preferred power generation strategy for Bangladesh would be to shift the base load of the power system to coal and save gas either for peak loading or for other valuable uses. Use of coal to fire large power plants would be one of the keys to rapid improvement in the power sector over the next decade. The coal for its semi-soft coking properties also has the potential to use in steel making industry along with other domestic and industrial uses. Coal has another potential use in briquette making. Coal briquette is widely used in many countries for domestic cooking and in small industries. It could a good option mainly for the north-western Bangladesh, where the forest resource is depleting rapidly for the dependency on fire wood for domestic cooking in absence of other alternative fuel sources.
We already have the experience of underground mining. Barapukuria mine clearly demonstrates how difficult it is mining in underground condition. Considering the energy situation and geology of the coal basins, Bangladesh has to go for large open pit coal mining adopting modern technologies and `best practice’ mitigation measures. The coal extraction has to be economically viable to manage all social and environmental issues associated with mine development. But to see the coal on the ground within next 2-3 years and use it for power generation to overcome the severe power crisis, decision has to be taken right now. Bangladesh cannot effort to loose time further for indecision.

Energy & Power
16/06/08
Link:http://www.ep-bd.com/