Denial of Everything

EP Report

Expectations from the military-backed caretaker government of Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed knew no limit simply because of their high sounding dreams they showed the nation since the 1/11 changeover. Intentional or unintentional, the so-called politics of the non-party government made things so complicated that now the windows of opportunities for the branded “political thieves” are opening up that they will come out tomorrow, if not today, as “political heroes”. Political analysts think “political game” of putting the two key leaders of the two main political parties behind the bars marred the opportunities to streamline the politics.
“Since 90 percent of people of Bangladesh are supporters of the two parties, the two ex Premiers should have been given the benefit of doubt to allow them to bring their parties on the right tracks,” an analyst said adding “the belated call from the Chief Advisor of national consensus would have witnessed a success had he sat with the two leaders within first couple of months and convinced them about the consensus, alongside carrying out the anti-corruption drive.”
“Now the opportunities are missed if we don’t want to fall into another deep crisis again,” said the analyst.
Like super structure, the country missed opportunities in the basic structure too. If the caretaker government did not mishandle the two key political players of the country, it one side could ensure commitment from them of peaceful politics in future without hurting the economy; and on other could concentrate more on economic affairs -- not only the day to day matters, but also by preparing a roadmap for economic upliftment in next 10 years with participation from all concerned quarters and again realizing the commitment from the politicians that they will work together to materialize the plan.
Anyway, Bangladesh lacks in visionary leadership and the caretaker government was no exception. Bangladesh missed the opportunity after the independence, then after overthrowing autocrat Ershad in 1990 and now following the 1/11 in 2007.
If the political roadmap progresses properly, the national election will be held in the third week of December. The country is expected to embark with an elected government in 2009. Now it’s clear that the qualitative change in politics is a far cry not for anyone else but due to the previously high ambitious “minus 2” plan of the caretaker government itself. Now it appears that the government will not able to bring minimum change in politics as now they had to “manage 2” formula as the “minus 2” boomeranged. “Had the government didn’t go for the minus 2 certainly certain changes could have been possible through the two leaders themselves,” another analyst said, adding “end of the day we’re going to have a big zero after all these high sounding changes following the 1/11 changeover.”
So, when the government of Fakhruddin Ahmed will hand over power to the elected government almost everything will be similar it was earlier. Even the changes expected in other sectors like economy are not being possible. Energy sector is no exception.
According to latest official statistics, per capita power consumption in Bangladesh is 140 kilowatt hour (kwh). The per capita power consumption in Sri Lanka is 325 Kwh, Pakistan 408 Kwh, India 663 Kwh, European countries 7,500-8,000 Kwh, Australia around 8,000 Kwh and in USA it is 10,000 Kwh.
Bangladesh not only remains at the bottom of the list of power consumption, it keeps electricity out of reach of 70 percent people of the country.
The power sector master plan suggests that the country requires 43,000 megawatt (MW) electricity to ensure power for all by 2025. According to the plan, 76 percent of the requirement or 33,000 MW will come from coal although now the percentage is only 5. In USA coal contributes to over 50 percent of total power generation, in India it is 70 percent and the figure for fast growing China is similar.
On the other hand, 87 percent of Bangladesh’s power generation depends on natural gas. But, the future of gas for Bangladesh is bleak and the existing fields are depleting.
According to United States Geological Survey (USGS), the prospect of gas resources with 50 percent probability is 32 TCF while it is 42 percent as per study carried out by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD). But, in terms of 90 percent probability it is not over 8 TCF.
Whatever the prospect is, nothing has been done in public sector to explore the prospect after 1990. After the major discovery of Bibiyana in 1998, a good discovery by an IOC was Moulvibazar in 1999 and then a small discovery in Bangura. Many might be surprised witnessing the silent role of the IOCs in last one decade while it is considered that 93 percent of gas discovery in the country was by the IOCs.
Analysts found the indecision of the government for such a situation. The IOCs didn’t find any clear indication from the government that what it will do with the discovered gas if an IOC makes the discovery investing millions of dollars. In fact, that was the reason that the IOC had wanted that gas is exported from Bangladesh. But, the government neither could decide in favor of gas export not could assure the IOCs that its discovered gas will have market inside the country.
In fact, that’s the reason the IOCs backtracked from the exploration activities and the country did not any discovery by them. Experts said had the government dared to export a portion of the gas from the Bibiyana, not only Chevron but also other IOCs would get encouraged to go for new exploration. If export was not possible due to political reasons, the government could go for major power projects creating market for the gas discovered by the IOCs. Still, the government sat idle and the result is that the country is now experiencing serious power crisis in one hand and on the other gas shortage, too.
Lately, the government went for third round bidding for offshore blocks. Still, the response is not overwhelming. Also, the High Court has issued show cause notice upon the government.
If one asks why the dismal situation of the country’s gas sector, the answer is simple: Denial of everything. A civil society group that could be an effective pressure group emerged as sycophantic elements that opposed everything. Without realizing own capacity in terms of both technology and investment these people are opposed to any kind of foreign investment in the energy sector.
Although the cell phone companies are sucking billions of dollars of common people in the name `days talks’ and `night talks’ and the country’s state-run BTTB had the capacity to go for such mobile phone networks, these “patriots” would not utter a single word. But, they are ready to sacrifice their lives if a foreign company invests in Bangladesh, obviously they are not charity organizations... profit is their main objective, and by the investment the company otherwise helps the country to ensure energy security these formerly leftists will threaten to collapse the country no matter whether they have the ability or not.
Similarly, they opposed the gas export idea showing only one side the coin. The intellectuals would never say what the objective when a national committee had suggested to export of portion of IOCs gas, that was to encourage the foreign companies to invest more for more discoveries and more energy security. The idea to oppose the gas export bid was popular, but in reality now the government and people of the country are feeling the heat of power crisis due to gas shortage.
The same people who once burnt jute godowns after the independence in the name of Maoist revolution are now shedding tears for jute industry of the country. Their present bid to “protect oil and gas” is also that kind of patriotism. These intellectuals are “so far sighted” that only a few years back they couldn’t understand the value of coal and thus forgot to incorporate the word coal in their organizational banner. Suddenly they woke up and now their main concentration is coal although they had launched the “crusade to protect oil and gas”.
The group had incorporated their bid to protect the port and after the caretaker government brought revolutionary changes in Chittagong Port, now it is clear that what kind of port the formerly leftists had wanted and what should be it in reality that is now we are watching.
Bangladesh’s present gas crisis could be overcome had there be the much-talked-about Myanmar-Bangladesh-India tri-nation gas pipeline. It would help Bangladesh to import gas in case of necessity. But, this was also not welcomed by the “sole protectors” of the country and the result is in hands.
But, the dangerous thing is that the past government almost bowed down to the irrational demands and finally could not take any courageous decision. In fact, it is also true that a government that was sunken by the corruption does not have the courage to take apparent unpopular decisions and show the people the fruit after a few years.
As the country fell behind in terms of gas exploration, now the golden opportunity for the country is coal prospect. The recoverable coal reserve in the country is 2.0 billion tonnes which is equivalent to about 65 TCF of gas. The Phulbari coal field, having a recoverable reserve of 572 million tonnes is ready for development.
But, again the problem is a Dhaka-based group supported by some international NGOs who by misleading information could convince the people around the coal field. The group at first campaigned that they would lay down their lives, but would not allow any mine. Later they said that the mine has to be underground. Once they campaigned that the entire area around Phulbari would be deserted if there is any coal mine over there. Now their campaign is that the agreement with the foreign company is anti-state, so the mine has to be developed by a local company.
The debate over method of the mining has been continuing for past few years. Unfortunately, the debate is not concentrated within the experts. Rather, it became an issue of a few people who hardly could manage a few hundred people in their support, but maintain regular presence in local and foreign media.
The Barapukuria itself proved that the geology of Bangladesh is not suitable for underground mining even if we consider that underground mine can give at best 20 percent of total reserve while an open pit mine will ensure at least 95 percent. Just consider that production from second slice of the Barapukuria might not be possible, which is scheduled from 2011. Also, consider the frequent accidents that take place in underground mines in China and the accidents witnessed by Barapukuria, too.
Interestingly, the group coupled with some environmentalists are opposed to development of coal production in Bangladesh although the share of coal in power generation in the most developed USA is above 50 percent. It is 80-82 percent for China and 75 percent in India. And for Bangladesh it is not over 5 percent.
Surprisingly, the statement of the “protectors” is similar to that of the developed countries who are interested to buy Bangladesh’s carbon credit.
Bangladesh is passing through a critical juncture in the political arena. Also, energy is the biggest challenge for the country specially when the oil price reached US$ 139 per barrel and projected to be $ 200 by the year end. For survival of the country, country’s people and the economy there is no alternative to ensure energy security. And if the country sits idle keeping coal reserve equivalent to 65 TCF of gas beneath the soil it’ll be simply living in the fool’s paradise.
So, the question is whether the country will be continuing to live in the fool’s paradise or come out paradox of denial of everything for better future of the people of the country? It’s the best time to launch a true campaign for energy for people, not depriving them in the name of their protection.
The role of politicians in this regard is very vital. They have to understand the ground reality and come of the years old practice of denial of everything only because they are in the opposition.

Energy & Power
16/06/08
Link : http://www.ep-bd.com/