Charting The Way Forward

Professor Ajoy K. Ghose

There is no dearth of debates on whether on not Bangladesh faces an energy crisis of a monumental dimension. It is increasingly becoming apparent however that unless some drastic policy decisions are taken right now, the energy dilemma will exacerbate to a level that will be beyond the control of the nation. Bangladesh’s energy landscape presents some ominous indicators. Gas, which had thus far been the mainstay of the nation’s energy base is, by all accounts, being rapidly depleted and unless the nation strikes it rich with new discoveries in its offshore fields, the energy future appears to be dark and dismal. The recently discovered coal resources in northwest Bangladesh are mired in controversy and organized opposition by civil society is setting up major roadblocks to coal development with the coal policy gathering dust in the files of the government. As energy is the very life blood of a nation, ensuring secure, reliable, affordable supplies of energy is a serious concern for Bangladesh, even though the energy use is very low with a per capita primary energy supply of 0.16 toe/capita(2004 data), possibly the lowest in the region. While traditional biomass meets some 50% of the total energy requirements, especially in rural Bangladesh, this is contributing to large-scale deforestation, besides serious impacts on the health of rural population because of indoor air pollution. Clearly, the dependence on traditional fuels and inefficient technologies, militate against the vision of the Bangladesh Government to provide for “electricity for all” by 2020. Even the per capita electricity consumption at 167 kWh/year falls short of the necessary stimulus required to attain a GDP growth rate of 6-7%.
Energy availability will be central to the development agenda of Bangladesh, as the catalyst for change for a better future. There are serious concerns about the security of energy supplies, investment in energy infrastructure and rising aspirations of the people with energy use continuing to grow inexorably. Even if there are no quick fixes, a road map for the nation’s energy future has to be drawn up and translated into reality if only to kick start the national economy and ward off potential political and social instability. Energy Landscape of Bangladesh The energy landscape of Bangladesh is a variegated one where biomass fuels account for 52% of the energy consumption. Of the commercial energy resources, natural gas has a dominant share, besides minor contributions from hydro, oil and coal and very limited share of renewables. Natural gas consuming sectors include the power sector, the fertilizer industry, domestic, captive power and transport and the demand has increased manifold over the years. Despite the myth that Bangladesh is “floating over gas”, the prospectivity for striking more gas deposits is high. According to World Energy Congress Survey of 2004, the proved recoverable reserves are estimated at 301 billion cubic metres and the R/P ratio is estimated at some 26 years. With rapidly escalating demand for gas, the reserves are fast depleting and the nation faces a resource crunch, unless new discoveries are made in gas fields. As much of Bangladesh is poorly explored, both off-shore and on-shore, the potential for further discoveries is thought to be substantial and a windfall of a few new deposits of the size of Titas or Habiganj could help ameliorate the energy resource crunch. This calls for extensive exploration efforts with matching investments and recourse to high technology.
The total installed capacity of power plants in 2005-2006 was 5245 MW, and the maximum demand was 3782 MW. The aggregate generation was 23,703 MkWh, of which the share of gas was 81.5%, hydro 4.3%, furnace oil 5.3%, diesel 4.07% and coal 4.74%. The access to electrical energy was only around 42%, despite the targeted 100 per cent electrification of all 84,000 villages in the country.The discovery of coal in northwest Bangladesh in 1960’s has opened up a new energy source which could provide a boost, if not a reinforcement, to the energy scenario of the country .This marks in fact a major milestone in sustainable energy development, given appropriate policy support. Five major coal deposits have been delineated in the recent past which include Jamalganj, Barapukuria, Khalaspir, Phulbari and Dighipara with an aggregate resource base of 3300 million tonnes, of which Phulbari and Barapukuria have been explored in detail with reserves estimated at 572 million tonnes and 303 million tonnes respectively. Developed with Chinese assistance, Barapukuria coal mine commenced production in Sepotember, 2005. The choice of underground method of exploitation has been fraught with serious consequences; the recovery is low and the bulk production has fallen short of the planned target production of 1million tonnes per year. The coal deposits discovered so far in Bangladesh are characterized by a sequence of 6 or 7 seams, some of which are thick to very thick.
The coal seams are overlain by Upper and Lower Dupi Tila formations which are highly water-bearing aquifers which pose serious problems of dewatering. At Barapukuria, a water inrush in 1996 led to significant sterilization of coal reserves. Currently, Barapukuria is producing around 0.3 to 0.4 million tonnes /year, but the recovery will not exceed 10% of the aggregate proven reserves. It is time to re-think the exploitation strategy and convert the underground operations to an open pit operation which besides improving recovery, safety and lowering cost of production would also permit of high production volume. The Phulbari coal deposit has been planned for exploitation by an open pit mine, with an ultimate pit depth of 330 m, for a production volume of 15Million tonnes per year. The project has encountered severe opposition from the civil society on the grounds of possible impacts on groundwater resources in the region, the problems of displacement of project affected people and likely damage to valuable agricultural land.
Much of the opposition is grounded on imaginary/unreal arguments; the displacement of the people would certainly call for a sensitive handling of the situation with a well-conceived R & R plan, providing for fair compensation and resettlement entitlements, training and provision of jobs for “locals” and building up appropriate social infrastructure for the people. The feasibility report of the Phulbari project has been submitted to the Government and is awaiting approval; the project has already received appropriate environmental clearances.
Both Khalaspir and Dighipara coal deposits need to be explored in depth to justify the mining plans. It should be possible to work them by open pit method to circumvent the problems likely with underground exploitation under aquifers. It would be in the interest of Bangladesh to examine the prospects of these deposits by open pit exploitation using the current shelf of strategies and state-of-the-art knowledge around the world and the Government would be well advised to set up a committee of experts rather than having the issues discussed and debated endlessly by civil society, who are oftentimes very ill-informed of coal mining technology per se.
The coal deposit at Jamalganj is a deep-seated one, with depth varying between 640 to 1160 m, and could be an ideal candidate for underground exploitation. However, keeping in view the escalating costs of underground mining from depth, lack of precedent experience in Bangladesh, one could conceive of different strategies for recovering the heat content of the coal seams such as recourse to underground coal gasification (UCG) at Jamalganj.
The coal resources of Bangladesh open up a new window of opportunity for staving off the energy crisis in the foreseeable future. The coal seams are of high quality and will provide fuel for thermal power plants to meet the crying need for electricity. One could even conceive of conversion of coal to liquids using such coals, keeping in view the skyrocketing oil prices, which could touch $150 per barrel within 2008 itself.
A well-conceived sustainable coal development plan for Bangladesh needs to be worked out identifying the share of coal in the national energy mix. It should be possible to accelerate coal development through joint ventures for Khalaspir and Dighipara and approving the feasibility report for Phulbari. By 2015, Phulbari could produce 12-15 million tonnes per year, while Barapukuria(if converted to an open pit operation) and Khalaspir and Dighipara augment the coal production by 5 million tonnes. Thermal power generation, given appropriate investments, should be possible for a capacity of 3000MW, using 9 million tonnes of high quality coal from Phulbari, and Barapukuria.
The focus on power generation for the urban sector has led to a neglect of distributed generation, especially of renewables. If the vision of 2020 has to be met, the rural sector must receive a higher priority.
Sustainable Energy Development – The Way ForwardBangladesh faces a daunting challenge in meeting her “energy hunger”, and overcoming the glaring rural-urban disparity in terms of access to energy. By 2020, the vision of “electricity for all” has to be realized and the per capita electricity consumption has to be raised to at least 750 kWh per year, if only to lift the nation by the bootstrap out of energy deprivation for a new economic future. With the skewed diversion of investments and human resources to urban energy supplies, the rural sector has been ignored and the situation can only be corrected by massive increase in the national power generation capacity and focus on accelerated rural electrification. Much of the new generation capacity could be based on coal, if the road blocks to coal development are lifted. The investment in power generation could be partly offset by exporting coal. The exploitation of coal in Bangladesh would herald the beginning of new energy and economic era and deserves the support of the Government in full

Energy & Power
16/06/08
Link:http://www.ep-bd.com/