It cant be done in three years’

Mullah Amzad Hossain, editor, Energy & Power, a Dhaka-based fortnightly magazine explains to Robab Rosan why we wont get much relief from load shedding in the next few years

We have been virtually living under a state of power shortage for almost decades now, especially during summer season. While subsequent governments have promised to deal with the issue and blame each other, the situation seems to deteriorate by the day. What has really happened through these years?
I think people are aware of the present situation in the power sector. I have monitored the flow of electricity from twelve hours from 10:00am to 10:00pm on April 15 and I have seen that electricity is not coming back after one hour, as per the schedule of load shedding. It is taking more time to return but staying on for less time. The situation is gradually getting worse.
I think the demand for electricity in the country in peak hours is no less than 7000 MW and the government is saying that electricity is being produced from three thousand to thirty seven hundred MW. And there is also a fifteen percent system loss as well. If we take into account uninterrupted supply of electricity for privileged people and areas, we see that the share of electricity amongst the common people is minimal.
Corruption has become the most popular victim in the country. For me, inefficiency is more dangerous than corruption.
We saw infrastructural development during the rule of HM Ershad, however, many irregularities and corruption were reported during that time. Later the BNP government continued the projects and took only a single project of establishing an electricity production centre in Siddirganj.
Next, the Awami League government finalised the Independent Power Producer policy (IPP), drafted by the previous BNP government.
The AL government successfully increased production of electricity from seventeen hundred to eighteen hundred MW to nearly four thousand MG according to the policy. We got 1300 hundred MW of electricity from the IPP.
Unfortunately, the next BNP government did not continue the projects taken by their predecessor. The government said that IPP was a curse for the nation and the then finance minister Saifur Rahman said they would not take even suppliers’ credit in the power sector. They later realised that they should start the IPP facility and suppliers’ credit again. But this time they wasted two years.
The BNP government started a centre of one hundred MW capacity at Tongi during their last tenure. They also began the process for a 240 MW production centre in Siddirganj and a centre in Sylhet, that started production during the last caretaker government.
Right now, we have five and a half thousand MW installed capacity. But many of the machineries are old and some of them remain closed for repair. On the other hand, the centres do not get uninterrupted gas supply. For these reasons, the production centres cannot produce according to their capacity.
The governments blame each other. I say that there was virtually no development not only in the power sector but also in the energy sector in the last seven years.
During the tenure of the previous government we saw violent crises regarding the shortage of power in Kansat and Demra. And yet, we now hear that not a single megawatt of power was increased in the last five years. Is this true and how is it possible?
The crisis of electricity will never be solved because in our country, gas is the main source of producing electricity. Eighty seven percent of electricity in our country is being produced by gas. We do not have enough reserve of gas. The government has yet to decide on whether to extract coal. They are delaying more and more. If we extracted coal, it could be used in generating electricity. There is no plan, I think, to generate electricity by purchased oil.
The government has planned to produce five thousand MW of electricity by five years. I agree with the government that it might be possible in five years but not in three years. The government has to involve local and foreign companies to explore gas immediately and urgently and they should also extract coal. Otherwise it might not be possible.
The finance minister has said that we cannot do anything about load shedding in the next three years. Is there really no way out?
Yes, the finance minister has said it correctly - we cannot do anything about load shedding in the next three years because it is a lengthy process. I have said earlier that the government can increase production in five years if they take effective initiatives right now. If they do not take initiatives they will not be able to produce even in five years.
The government can provide social tariffs for at least sixty percent of people, who are in the marginal line of poverty. They can give twenty percent subsidy to the lower middle class people. But those who are capable of paying must pay the original price. The government can also establish a special grid for uninterrupted electricity at the higher price.
In a recent report, we have heard that the government is thinking of purchasing electricity from India. What are your views on that?
I think, this region (SAARC) is the only region where we have no real cooperation in the energy sector. Due to lack of faith among the two countries, Bangladesh and India, and a lack of far sight in our politicians, we could not establish a multinational cooperation in this region. We can import electricity from India in the short run or mid run. We can also import electricity from Nepal but the decision should be taken immediately.
We currently, apparently have the capacity to produce 600MW of extra power and yet we don’t have the gas to do it. Meanwhile, our gas resources lay as it was because we have not been able to resolve our issues regarding the extraction of gas. How can we increase our gas supply?
If the question of gas supply comes we will see many irregularities in this sector. We are unfortunate because our governments do not solve the problem. They allow the problem to grow into a crisis and then they go for the remedy. But by this time we waste a lot of time and money. We are gradually losing our reserve but not exploring new gas fields. We are neither allowing foreign companies nor the local ones to work in this sector.
We have to extract coal for generating electricity because about fifty percent of electricity is produced across the world from coal. Denmark, which has a contribution of 42 percent in renewable energy, produces 48 percent of its electricity from coal. Our neighbouring country India produces about sixty percent of its electricity from coal and China produces around seventy percent of its electricity from the same resource. The government must ensure better rehabilitation of people and minimise environmental hazard for extraction of coal.
Using the policy of Production Sharing Contract (PCS), the government should immediately take initiatives to explore gas in the Bay of Bengal, otherwise we will not be able to increase our production.
There is inefficiency in the government sector. At the other end we have increasing demand, sometimes artificially created by MP’s and their electoral promises. How do we get out of all this?
Forty percent of total budget in the power sector should be kept for generation, forty percent for transmission and the rest twenty percent for distribution. This was not done properly.
To earn cheap popularity, the government says that they will set up production houses at their own cost. We virtually need nearly five million USD to set up a 450 MW power plant. This is not possible for the Bangladesh government to do single-handedly. Our share market is also not booming that the government will collect money from the market.
If the question about the extension of electricity in rural areas comes I will ask the government whether they want to keep our rural people in darkness. The rural people have the right to get electricity. The government knows that ten percent demand will increase every year.
To extend electricity is not a fault. It is a fault not to produce electricity. People can demand electricity from their representatives. The government is developing roads but not giving electricity. You cannot expect development without electricity.
What are your views on alternate sources of power for households and how can we effectively increase awareness among people to stop wasting power?
The government is going to take an appreciating initiative to replace all the incandescent bulbs with Compact Florescent Bulbs (CFBs) by two years. The World Bank will provide the bulbs free and the German organisation GTZ will provide technical support. The government has planned to replace one and half crore bulbs by February next and one crore more by the end of the year. It will save eighty percent of bills and save eight hundred MW electricity.
The government should also ensure that the generators, refrigerators and ACs and other appliances are energy efficient. The government can also encourage the factories, particularly the steel mills, to run at night. On the other hand, the government can close markets by five o’clock five days in a week and can keep them open till 11:00 at night on the remaining two days. Shoppers will get habituated to this system in time.

Source : New Age (X tra) , Bangladesh
Link: http://www.newagebd.com/2009/apr/24/apr24/xtra_inner6.html
Date : 24- 30 April, 2009