The development of any country depends mostly on its power without which the national economy must fail to proceed. Everybody knows about the meager situation of power in Bangladesh. But the policymakers and experts are still not taking initiatives to improve this sector showing unknown reasons, which is unfortunate. However indecision, unnecessary delay in decision making process, bureaucratic tangles and fund constraints may be ascribed to the persisting energy crisis. Despite all the well-meaning intentions, it appears that for years the energy sector of the country is hamstrung by a kind of decision-making paralysis. In Bangladesh, the power is generated from natural gas (82%), oil (9%), Hydro (4%) and coal (5%).Demand and Supply of Power. BPDB is responsible for distribution of electricity in most of the areas in Bangladesh. Dhaka Metropolitan City and its adjoining areas are under DPDC and DESCO, Khulna and surrounding Districts are under West Zone Power Distribution Company Limited (WZPDCL) and some of the rural areas of Bangladesh are under Rural Electrification Board ( REB).
The total installed capacity of power generation is 5245MW of which the achievable average generation capacity is around 3400 MW whereas the average peak demand of power is around 4200 MW. Therefore the present shortage of power is around 800MW. In the last 2 years, there was no additional power generation from any new plant. And in the last 7 years, only 80MW (Tongi power plant which is now closed due to gas unavailability) power has been added to the national grid. At present only 42.09% of the population is served with electricity and per capita electricity consumption is only 169.92 Kwh (FY -2006) where there is a goal in Power Sector Master Plan to reach the electricity for all by 2020 which is absolutely impossible considering the present condition.
Present Gas Reserve and Projected DemandAccording to the estimation, the recoverable gas reserve (proven and probable) of the 23 discovered gas fields of the country is 20.63 TCF of which 7.42 TCF has been used so far leaving a recoverable gas reserve of 13.21 TCF (as of December 2007). Energy demand projection for a developing country like Bangladesh is difficult to perform. Several scenarios were used to get an understanding of the energy requirement for a level of economic performance. The natural gas requirement from 2000 to 2050 has been summarized as follows. (a) If the economic performance is on the low side (3% GDP growth rate), the total gas requirement will be between 40 and 44 Tcf. (b) If economic performance continues according to the historical trend (Business-as-usual; 4.55% GDP growth rate), gas requirement will be between 64 and 69 Tcf. (c) If performance is on the moderately high side (6% GDP growth rate), gas requirement will be between 101 and 110 Tcf. (d) If performance is on the high side (7% GDP growth rate), gas requirement will be between 141 and 152 Tcf. However, depending on low GDP rate the natural gas demand up to 2020 will be 9.9 Tcf to 17.4 Tcf. Now it is evident that the present natural gas reserve is not sufficient to meet our upcoming demand. The gas shortage has already been started all over the country. Government has already started rationing in distribution. Several power plants are not able to generate their maximum capacity because of gas shortage. Numerous industries are struggling for the production because of gas shortage.
Power GenerationAt present around 82% of power generation is dependent on natural gas of which 85% (cumulative production) gas is supplied from governmental organization (Petrobangla) and 15% (cumulative production) gas is supplied from International Oil Companies (IOCs). Khulna power plant (226MW), Bhola power plant (6MW), and Khulna Power Company Ltd (KPCL) (110MW) are producing electricity (9% of total) using oil/furnace oil as fuel.
Karnafuli Hydro Power Station, the only hydropower plant in the country is located at Kaptai, Chittagong. After being commissioned in 1962, the plant could feed the national grid with 80 MW of electricity. In later years, the generation capacity was increased in two phases to a total of 230 MW (4% of total). The plant not only plays an important role in meeting the power demand of the country but is also vital as a flood management installation for the areas downstream. Around 3 billion tones of Gondwana coal has been discovered in 5 coal fields of Northwest Bangladesh. Among the 5 discovered coal fields, only Barapukuria and Phulbari have been intensively studied with significant number of drilled boreholes and estimated the resource confidently to internationally recognized standards. Resource estimation in other coal fields is inferred only with a limited number of boreholes and significant exploration activities will be required to define the resource confidently. Among these coal fields, only Barapukuria Underground Coal Mine is now extracting coal with the target of one million tones per year. A mine mouth 250MW coal-fired power plant (5% of total) has been established based on the coal. But the mine is struggling to feed the power plant with required amount of coal for various technical and geological difficulties. Huge amount (approximately 3 billion tones) of imported low quality coal (from India) is used in brick fields all over the country. A few quantity (as coal briquette) of coal is consumed both for domestic and commercial purposes (e.g., tea stall, blacksmith’s traders etc).
However, the policy makers and the experts must analyze and discuss the present scenarios. The national economy will suffer unexpected stagnant situation for long periods, if the country does not take initiatives immediately to address this present uncertain and meager energy situation properly. We shall have to be realized that the continued crisis and trouble in power-energy sectors may cause disastrous situation in our industry, agriculture and other commercial sectors. The national economy will obviously become stagnant or even nonfunctional. Dr. M. Tamim, special assistant to chief advisor for the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources said (Source: Daily New Nation 20 July 200 ‘No more Power Plant on Gas’. Therefore coal would be the only available alternative resource to overcome this power crisis. A long debate has been continuing on coal policy and coal sector development amongst the experts/policymakers. Now it is time for taking decision on proper coal exploration and utilization.
Weekly Economic Times
Date : 03/08/08
Link : http://www.weeklyeconomictimes.com/news-details.php?recordID=1553
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